< The 2016 All-Europe Research Team

Total Appearances: 10

Team Debut: 1997

Deutsche Bank retains the No. 1 position it has held since 2012. The five-strong crew piloted by Mark Wall wins special praise for its rigorous reporting. ”There is hardly one [European Community] event that will not get covered and commented upon from different angles,” one fund manager attests. Expectations for real regional gross domestic product growth in 2015 have been “remarkably steady” at 1.5 percent, the result of “a complex array of headwinds and tailwinds,” says Wall, who cites challenging external demand and the cost of weakening exports offset by a significant drop in oil prices. At the same time, he adds, the effects of monetary and fiscal easing policies are combining to support projections for improved expansion this year. However, his London-based team is concerned about the prospects for 2017, forecasting that GDP in Europe will increase at a slower rate. “We suspect the global oil market will have rebalanced, pushing oil prices up,”explains the 43-year-old economist. “With both monetary and fiscal policy likely to tighten modestly in 2017, economic growth will be more exposed to the squeeze from higher oil prices.” In addition, elections that year in France, Germany, the Netherlands and possibly Italy elevate political risk, thus weighing on the economies and “compromising Europe’s ability to coherently manage major issues like the refugee crisis,” he observes.