THIRD TEAM Jan Hatzius Goldman, Sachs & Co.
Jan Hatzius of Goldman, Sachs & Co. repeats in third place. In December, Hatzius published his list of ten top economic forecasts for 2011, the most prescient of which was his prediction that the Federal Reserve Board would keep interest rates at their current level — barely above zero — until 2013. “Once again we are puzzled by the consensus among economic forecasters that rate hikes are right around the corner,” the economist wrote. Not only was his call out-of-consensus among major forecasters — more than three quarters of 40 economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators had predicted an interest rate hike sometime in 2011 — but he was right. In early August the Fed declared its intention to keep the federal funds rate “exceptionally low” for at least the next 24 months. “You always have to see what Hatzius has to say, because of Goldman’s global presence and their understanding of bond markets,” insists one client. “He can tap into the deep pool of knowledge worldwide.”