Ilan Goldfajn, Ciro Matuo & team Itaú BBA

Capturing the No. 2 spot in this newly added sector is the Itaú BBA quartet managed by Ilan Goldfajn and Ciro Matuo, who also pilots the top team in Corporate Debt. The São Paulo–based squad’s research “provides a good understanding of what’s happening on the ground [in Latin America] as well as a good global perspective,” observes one buy-side advocate. Latin America is affected by issues far beyond its borders. “Structural measures to keep the euro zone together, the U.S. fiscal cliff, the state of Chinese demand — these are among the most relevant global themes for local markets,” notes Goldfajn. Macro worries didn’t preclude the team from accurately forecasting in October that Brazil’s central bank would cut its benchmark interest rate from 11.50 percent to 9 percent, below the consensus forecast of 10.5 percent, in 2012. In May, two weeks after the bank’s monetary policy committee had slashed the Selic rate to 9 percent, “we published our scenario review projecting rate cuts to 7.75 percent, while consensus was looking for 8.5 percent,” he adds. Last month the bank lowered the rate again, to a record low 8 percent, and signaled its openness to further reductions later this year. “Our below-consensus view on rates correctly anticipated the dynamics of the short end of the local yield curve, helping those who positioned to receive short rates in Brazil,” Goldfajn explains. — Thomas W. Johnson