Erica Poon Werkun & team UBS

Erica Poon Werkun steers the 15-strong UBS squad up one notch to third. The analysts publish research on 150 stocks, and work out of Bangkok, Beijing, Hong Kong, Jakarta, Manila, Mumbai, Seoul, Shanghai, Singapore and Taipei. They are cautious in the near term because “macro factors such as government policies and economic instability have impacted consumer sentiment and purchasing behavior,” Werkun says. In September the team downgraded Esprit Holdings — which is dually headquartered in Ratingen, Germany, and Hong Kong — from neutral to sell, at HK$15.08, in response to the apparel and footwear manufacturer’s four-year restructuring program. “While we had believed in the long-term success of the plan, we had thought the market was running short on patience or faith,” Werkun recalls. In early February, with the stock down 13.5 percent, to HK$13.04, the analysts upgraded it to buy, on the belief that the market was overly negative on Esprit’s turnaround chances. Later that month, when the company announced interim results that beat analysts’ estimates, the stock bolted 25.1 percent — and the UBS team promptly downgraded it back to sell, at HK$17.76, citing investor overconfidence. By the end of March, the shares had fallen 12.2 percent, back to HK$15.60. “We continue to believe there will be an eventual turnaround for Esprit, but it needs to show results on various deliverables to support a sustainable rerating,” says Werkun, who wins praise from one investor for work that is “thorough and dispassionate — it is, in a word, trustworthy.”
— ­Leslie Kramer