Nancy Lazar
ISI Group
Marking her fourth straight appearance in second place is ISI Group’s Nancy Lazar, whose “bold differentiated research has proved her right time after time,” marvels one ally. Recalls another client: “She was early in forecasting the recession in Europe and the slowdown in the U.S. in the second quarter — and she’s done excellent work detailing how there can be an industrial renaissance in the U.S. owing to lower labor and energy costs.” Lazar expects the European Central Bank and regional finance ministers to collaborate to avert a full-blown financial crisis in the area, so “the biggest impact on the U.S. from the euro zone recession would be the hit to company earnings for both U.S. exporters and U.S. companies that operate in Europe,” she says. “And to the extent that the euro continues to decline, which is likely, the stronger dollar will also hit U.S. company earnings.” She forecasts that the resurgence in U.S. manufacturing will produce a multiplier effect that directly benefits capital goods companies and regional banks, and indirectly boosts such sectors as homebuilders and retailers. Abundant supplies of natural gas and shale oil are also boosting revenues of many states, especially Kansas, North Dakota, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Texas.