< The 2015 All-Japan Research Team

Total appearances: 3

Team debut: 2013

This year marks Junichi Makino’s second consecutive No. 3 finish on this roster. The SMBC Nikko Securities economist’s “explanations are clear cut, easy to understand and backed by logical thinking,” observes one fund manager. Makino, 49, is alerting investors that the yen may see a reversal this year and start appreciating, propelled in part by the Greek government-debt crisis and a delay in an expected U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike. Another important factor is the Bank of Japan’s reaction to inflation levels, he points out. Makino is forecasting a decline in prices that will result in a year-over-year core consumer price index rate of –1 percent in October. “If the BoJ ignores the fall in CPI,” he notes, “that means it has changed its policy from easing to tightening — and then the yen will appreciate.” As for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic plan, in general, the researcher says it “still has a long way to its goal.” In February the central bank announced that Japan’s output was running at 2.2 percent below full capacity, on an annualized real basis. In addition, though the Abe administration’s strategy is aimed at generating a 2 percent rise in consumer prices, the BoJ reported that annual core inflation stood at 0.2 percent. “I like his analysis because he is not swayed by market consensus,” cheers another client.