< The 2015 Latin America Research Team
Total appearances: 7
Team debut: 2003At No. 3 for a second consecutive year are Ilan Goldfajn and his Itaú BBA squad, whose 15 members are stationed in Buenos Aires, London, Mexico City, Santiago and São Paulo. Monitoring the duration of the ongoing and widespread deceleration of economic activity in Latin America and anticipating the timing of a potential recovery are key considerations going forward, says the 49-year-old team leader. However, his group does not see an opportunity for additional policy-based stimulus in response to the downturn. Weakness in Brazil is “more acute” than elsewhere in the region, advises Goldfajn, and the government should pursue “procyclical” policy initiatives, implementing tightening measures while real gross domestic product is contracting. “Brazilian growth will not be more than moderate, since productivity and potential GDP growth requires difficult reforms,” he explains. “Brazil will also not be able to cut rates anytime soon to help the economy. With inflation at current levels, pushed up by a series of shocks, we expect the central bank only to have room for cutting rates from the second quarter of 2016 onward.” As he has done every year since 2013, Goldfajn also co-captains, with Ciro Matuo, the top-ranked crew on the Local-Markets Strategy roster; he also directs a team that earns a runner-up position on the Sovereign Debt lineup. “Ilan is a first-class economist,” one fund manager declares. “His research is complete and thorough, the best on the sell side.”
