< The 2014 All-Europe Research Team

Daniel Kerven & team
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
First-place appearances: 11

Total appearances: 31

Team debut: 1992

Daniel Kerven debuted in 2013 as head of Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s runner-up squad, marking the firm’s return to the roster after a three-year absence. This year he guides his trio up to second place, the firm’s highest ranking since 2009. Kerven’s “ability to identify turning points and structural trends long before the wider market” sets him — and his team — apart, one admirer reports. “When Daniel has a high-conviction call,” the supporter adds, “you have to listen, as he has a great track record for making clients money.” For the first half of this year, the analysts project “a period of consolidation, with some rotation into higher-quality names,” says Kerven. “Macro trends and advertising will remain key drivers.” The researchers cover 25 stocks, and for many years they loved British Sky Broadcasting Group. But in December 2011 they downgraded the U.K. mass media company to neutral and then in April 2012 cut it to underperform. New fiber rollouts by telecommunications operators and increased broadband delivery of TV services via over-the-top players such as U.S.-based Amazon.com and Netflix would bring new and stiff competition, they believed. This in turn would drive lower returns, with the risks exacerbated by Sky’s fixed costs. The call proved correct. BSkyB once again is among the worst-performing European media stocks, trailing the sector by 24.6 percentage points in 2013 despite a 14 percent share price rise, to 740.38 pence.