< The 2014 All-America Research TeamJoshua ShankerDeutsche Bank SecuritiesFirst-place appearances: 2

Total appearances: 5

Team debut: 2009Despite dropping from first place to third, Joshua Shanker of Deutsche Bank Securities impresses investors with “his good corporate access and willingness to take an open approach to a changing landscape,” in the words of one fund manager. Shanker explains that a recent pricing uptrend has cooled off to approach zero growth, even as margins for the property/casualty business are “still quite good.” Whereas the recent recession created a lack of frequency of claims, the group would now be hurt by a healthy recovery that could increase the frequency of losses, resulting in insurers’ paying out more claims and an erosion of margins. “We need to monitor the pace of cases being filed in courts, the pace of medical-cost inflation, but most important, the pace of the recovery in Main Street USA,” the researcher adds. “Ironically, what seems good for us could has a jarring effect on p/c insurers.” Shanker favors names that he sees as potentially lagging indicators of economic improvement, including Daytona Beach, Florida’s Brown & Brown; Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. of Itasca, Illinois; and New York–based Marsh & McLennan Cos.