Tobias Stingelin Credit Suisse First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 4

Team debut: 2011 Tobias Stingelin of Credit Suisse claims second place in this new category, which is carved out of the former Consumer Goods sector. Last year the São Paulo–based researcher earned a runner-up position on that lineup on behalf of Santander; he moved to Credit Suisse in September. Now covering 11 Brazilian retailers, the researcher is increasingly cautious, owing to macroeconomic concerns and valuations. “Following the sell-off in the beginning of the year, the shares recovered nicely, valuations expanded and, with very few exceptions, there are no liquid — that is, decent trading volume — bargains in the sector,” Stingelin explains. “The sector is not expensive on an historical basis, but upsides are capped and the looming risks — that is, a modest increase in unemployment rates, low consumer and business confidence, relatively high inflation, volatility related to elections — are higher.” He makes an exception for general merchandiser Hypermarcas, which is headquartered in São Paulo. Stingelin reiterated his buy rating on the stock in February, crediting the retailer’s exposure to two growing, less discretionary and relatively low-ticket business segments: consumer goods and pharmaceuticals. He also praised management’s strategy of pairing organic growth with increased operational efficiencies and ability to rapidly deleverage, as well as Hypermarcas’s strong earnings growth potential and solid free cash flow yield. By the end of July, the shares had climbed 19.6 percent, to 18.09 reais, against the sector’s rise of 14.8 percent.