Total appearances: 18
Team debut: 1994 Emy Shayo Cherman’s J.P. Morgan trio rockets from last year’s runner-up position to seize the top spot on this list for the first time since 2011. Based in Mumbai and São Paulo, the analysts are bearish on Brazil’s market in the short term, citing slow growth and uncertainty regarding potential economic policy changes after elections in October. “At this point, there is little visibility on how this will evolve,” says Cherman. “The scenario for Brazil in that sense is very binary.” She and her colleagues have laid out two main scenarios for investors. “A market-friendly electoral outcome would lead to a decline in long-term interest rates,” she notes, “as the outlook for inflation would greatly improve under a more orthodox approach to economic policy.” The result would be a fertile environment for property and concessions players, the researchers believe, as well as companies that operate on a long-term financing structure. On the other hand, “in the case of a less-market-friendly outcome,” the 41-year-old crew chief says, “we recommend stocks that benefit from a weaker exchange rate and/or have exposure to business outside Brazil.” As examples, she points to Rio de Janeiro–based diversified metals and mining giant Vale and Joinville auto-parts producer Tupy. “Our advice to navigate the volatile electoral period is to adopt trading strategies that allow for exposure to both scenarios,” Cherman concludes.
