Jonathan Goulden, Zafar Nazim & team
J.P. Morgan
First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 3

Team debut: 2011

Under the direction of newcomers Jonathan Goulden and Zafar Nazim, J.P. Morgan returns to this lineup after a year’s absence, reclaiming the third-place position it earned in 2012. The eight-member, London-based team is hailed for delivering research that is “timely, precise and profound,” as one buy-side backer puts it. Given the significant volatility that Russian and Ukrainian bonds have endured because of a conflict that’s far from resolved, Goulden notes, these are the only countries in his group’s sovereign index to see wider spreads so far in 2014. Accordingly, the strategists advise investors to “stay generally underweight Russian and Ukrainian corporates and banks,” he says, “though the rapidly changing situation can lead to tactical changes in our recommendations.” They maintain the same views for the nations’ sovereign bonds and for the ruble. Beyond these two markets, the strategists advocate overweighting Dubai’s and Turkey’s corporate issues, with a preference for lower-rated tranches, and they remain bullish on Hungary and Turkey sovereigns, despite recent strong performances from both countries. In the local-currency-bond space, the J.P. Morgan squad proposes “staying long duration, given low inflation and the global pressure for lower yields,” Goulden notes, and advises overweighting Romanian government bonds and using curve-steepener strategies in countries where rate hikes are likely to be postponed.