Alessandro Arlant Bank of America Merrill Lynch First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 2

Team debut: 2013 Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s Alessandro Arlant debuted on this lineup in 2013 as a runner-up and now rises to No. 3. The São Paulo–based analyst believes that volatility in local rates and foreign currencies will continue, no matter the outcome of Brazil’s October presidential elections, with a weakening real most likely to hurt the cement and construction, media and telecommunications and utilities sectors. Petróleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, is especially poorly positioned, he says, given the Rio de Janeiro–based energy provider’s rising debt and leverage levels. For financial institutions, a slower economy will pressure asset quality by at least 50 basis points, he contends, at a time when capital needs are increasing because of the recently implemented Basel III regulatory framework. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Arlant expects Brazilian investment-grade bonds and select high-yield credits to outperform their peers in the second half of this year. Many domestic issuers of international bonds have over the past several quarters delivered improving fundamentals, he explains, such as stable gross margins, rising earnings margins and declining leverage. His top high-yield picks include beef producers São Paulo–based Marfrig Global Foods and Minerva, pulp maker Suzano Papel e Celulose of Bahia and Paraíba-headquartered sugarcane processor Usina São João. These companies boast above-average liquidity and sound asset coverage, says Arlant. His favorite investment-grade names are Braskem, a pharmaceuticals manufacturer, and cement producer Votorantim Cimentos, both of which are based in São Paulo.