Stephen Shepherd, Yuriy Vlasov & team
J.P. Morgan
First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 2

Team debut: 2012

J.P. Morgan did not place on this roster in 2013, but this year Stephen Shepherd and newcomer Yuriy Vlasov guide their six-strong troupe to third place, notching the firm’s best showing to date. Overall, the analysts — who are based in Johannesburg, Moscow and Warsaw — are positive on the region’s diversified mining stocks, citing low valuations, improving free-cash-flow yields and expectations that Chinese economic activity will hit bottom. For South Africa’s miners of platinum group metals, they expect “a bumpy near-term ride given the ongoing wage-related strike,” says Shepherd. “But this should be offset by a positive medium-term outlook for PGM prices, as demand firms globally on the back of strengthening vehicle sales and tightening tailpipe emission standards and as supply remains constrained.” Companies they like in this segment include Anglo American Platinum and Royal Bafokeng Platinum. Regarding the nation’s gold miners, they likewise foresee near-term risks, thanks to seasonal weakness for both gold prices and gold production, he notes. As a result, stock selection is key, and AngloGold Ashanti is a particular favorite. When it comes to Russia, “we see a challenging macro outlook offset by encouraging signs pointing to an inflection point for the sector,” Stephens explains. In particular, such key drivers as ongoing cuts to capital expenditures and a positive outlook for nickel, PGMs and diamonds should lift free-cash-flow forecasts over the next year. In this category they prefer diamond producer Alrosa and nickel miner Norilsk Nickel.