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Bob Kommers
& team
Deutsche Bank
First-Place Appearances: 3

Total Appearances: 4

Team Debut: 2011

Repeating in first place is the Deutsche Bank squad piloted by Bob Kommers, which monitors some 80 regional financial firms. Investors hail the nine analysts — working from offices in Dubai, Istanbul, Johannesburg, Moscow and Warsaw — for both their client service and their output. “They are the most active in Turkey equities research,” offers one fund manager. “They produce quality research around the clock and do not shy away from providing short-term alpha themes.” The sector outperformed the broad regional market by 1.5 percentage points year to date through May, rising 4.5 percent, but “the performance has been volatile, mirroring the geopolitical turmoil in the region,” says Kommers, 45. He and his team expect challenges to remain through year’s end. “Earnings momentum is muted, and it is difficult to see valuations recovering to midcycle levels without a material reduction in the investment and political risks.” However, they continue to favor the Middle East & North Africa, he adds, noting that “strong earnings growth and relatively low investment risks are still not fully priced in.” Finally, the researchers’ outlook on Turkey is mixed. That market “remains interesting longer term,” Kommers explains, “but the strong run over the past few months has limited near-term upside.” At a company level, Deutsche’s crew is bullish on Hungary’s OTP Bank, based on the stabilization of its Russian and Ukrainian operations, as well as improvements in its Southeastern European operations. “We expect earnings to surprise on the upside, and that is not priced in,” he advises. At 5,000 forints, their target price implies a potential gain of 3 percent for the stock from its value in late May. The analysts also like Türkiye Halk Bankası. “It has a deposit-funded balance sheet and a favorable asset mix, which shelters the bank from the regulatory and interest rate pressures facing the Turkish banks,” explains Kommers. Halkbank’s valuation is also attractive, they believe, in particular as corporate governance concerns have eased. The shares closed May at 16.30 lira, and they project a rise to 17 lira. This year, Kommers also co-leads, with Aleksandar Stojanovski, a runner-up team in Chemicals. “I love the fact he will respond to my questions ‘live’ when we are both listening to a company’s quarterly management call,” one fan comments.