< The 2014 All-Japan Research Team

Tetsuya Miura
Mizuho Securities Group
First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 1

Analyst debut: 2014

Mizuho Securities Group strategist Tetsuya Miura debuts at No. 3. The yield on generic ten-year Japanese government bonds stood at 0.63 percent in mid-March, and the analyst forecasts that it will remain below 1 percent for the rest of the year. However, an anticipated round of additional easing measures from the central bank will encourage expectations of reflation, he says, which in turn will boost yields to 0.8 to 0.9 percent from the summer until the end of the year. At the same time, the gap between Japanese sovereign yields and those of U.S. Treasuries will gradually expand as the U.S. Federal Reserve continues its tapering of quantitative easing and the Bank of Japan strengthens its quantitative and qualitative monetary accommodation. As a result, the available supply of Treasuries and other U.S. credits has increased, which is a boon to Japanese money managers, who “prefer to invest in foreign products,” he says. Miura suggests that investors in Japanese government bonds favor long durations until the middle of this year and continue to increase their purchases of 20-year tenures or five-year to 20-year flatteners. In addition, because he forecasts that the trend in the dollar-yen basis-swap spread will reverse and become more negative, he recommends increasing dollar receive positions in the mid- and long-term segments of the curve. Miura “always has value-added insights,” comments one buy-side fan.