< The 2014 All-Europe Research Team

Frederick Lucas & team
J.P. Morgan Cazenove
First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 4

Team debut: 2011

Headquartered in London, the J.P. Morgan Cazenove trio under the direction of Frederick Lucas vaults from runner-up to deliver the firm’s best-ever showing, in second place. Last March the team launched a well-received series of brief reports on industry trends, called “Three-Minute Reads.” As one client notes, “Fred thinks like an investor, and he understands we don’t have a lot of time.” From its expanding coverage universe, currently numbering 21 stocks, Lucas’s squad last year singled out the Netherland’s Royal Dutch Shell as likely to disappoint. Noting that the global independent oil and gas provider’s capital expenditures were high even as its free cash flow was low, the analysts downgraded Shell’s shares from neutral to underweight, also in March. By early December the stock had slipped 3.8 percent and trailed the sector by 2.6 percentage points. At that point, the team elevated the shares back to neutral, primarily on valuation. Through year’s end they rebounded 8.6 percent, to 2,280 pence, while the sector climbed 4.4 percent. Looking ahead, the researchers favor BG Group, a U.K.-based integrated natural-gas company. A year into his tenure as BG’s CEO, Christopher Finlayson is doing well by focusing on liquefied natural gas and near-term earnings, they contend.