Wiktor Bielski & team
VTB Capital
First-place appearances: 3

Total appearances: 4

Team debut: 2011

After three years at No. 1 on this lineup, VTB Capital slips to second place. London-based Wiktor Bielski and his squad take a somewhat upbeat view on the commodities markets in emerging Europe, the Middle East and Africa, recommending that institutional investors rethink what the team leader characterizes as their “massive” underweights. Conditions for the group that have improved since last year, he notes, include a modest increase in measured commodities assets under management, the easing of an emerging-markets currency crisis and faster global growth, which is leading to a rise in underlying demand for the goods. Bielski acknowledges, however, that various inventory issues and a sharp downturn among China’s property names pose a risk to performance. “If we don’t see a reacceleration in the property sector, that would be pretty negative for Chinese growth. It would be pretty negative for emerging markets. It would be negative for commodities,” he says. Accordingly, his crew recommends that more cautious clients move to a more neutral or slightly underweight posture, while money managers that embrace his team’s more sanguine view of the world should cut their underweightings and build overweight positions. “There a definite shift away from the supernegative sentiment of last year to certainly a more positive outlook,” Bielski adds. “I think that positive outlook will gather a bit more momentum into the second half.” Affirms one backer, “His coverage universe is rather broad, which enables us to place Eastern Europe in a larger EMEA context.”