Arthur Carvalho Filho Morgan Stanley First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 1

Team debut: 2014 Morgan Stanley’s Arthur Carvalho Filho debuts on this lineup in second place. The São Paulo–based economist wins kudos from one money manager for “challenging the view that Brazil’s labor markets were about to unravel, even while recognizing that Brazil would likely disappoint again on the growth front.” Employment is indeed a key issue for investors, Carvalho acknowledges. “After ten years of falling unemployment, there are the first signs that job creation is finally weakening,” he explains, “raising the prospects of a labor market adjustment, which would mean higher unemployment and lower wage growth.” He is advising investors to be cautious about Brazil’s growth outlook, forecasting real gross domestic product expansion of just 1 percent for this year and a below-consensus 0.9 percent for 2015. Next year, Carvalho says, “output will have to be sacrificed in order to keep inflation low.”