< The 2014 All-Europe Research Team

Lars Kjellberg & team
Credit Suisse
First-place appearances: 1

Total appearances: 19

Team debut: 1990

Credit Suisse slips from first place to second but continues to attract a loyal following. Stockholm-based team leader Lars Kjellberg “is always helpful with teasing apart complex sector dynamics,” affirms one backer. The analysts keeps tabs on 12 companies and forecast that the packaging segment will outpace paper in 2014 as a defensive subsector with strong cash flow. Since October they have been urging investors to favor the U.K.’s Mondi, a vertically integrated forestry-products concern. Upgraded from neutral to outperform that month, the stock had slipped 1.8 percent by year’s end, to 1,046 pence, and trailed the broad market by 7.5 percentage points. The team maintains its stance, however, and considers the dip a buying opportunity. On the other hand, one company on which Kjellberg’s crew has switched course is Finnish diversified papermaker Stora Enso. In April the researchers upgraded the stock from neutral to outperform, at €4.88, citing management’s plans to reduce costs. In September, with the shares up to €6.72 and ahead of the broad market by 28.3 percentage points, they reduced them back to neutral, primarily on valuation. That might have been premature: the stock closed the year up 8.6 percent further, at €7.30, and outperformed by 4.6 percentage points.