< The 2014 All-Europe Research Team

Elga Bartsch & team
Morgan Stanley
First-place appearances: 5

Total appearances: 27

Team debut: 1993

After three years in third place, Elga Bartsch leads her Morgan Stanley crew up one rung to the second tier. The team of six in London boasts “good contacts within the European Union and the political world,” reports one investor, who also praises the group’s “knowledge and insights about the euro area’s problems.” Improvement in the euro zone “remains fragile, uneven, and seems to have hit some roadblocks,” Bartsch says. Last year her squad was out of consensus in forecasting a second-half 2013 turnaround, but the economists are now “concerned that the recovery might disappoint near term,” she advises. Accordingly, they cut their 2014 real gross domestic product growth forecast to 0.5 percent from 0.9 percent, since “a number of downside risks to the euro area growth outlook have materialized,” she explains — “notably, an unexpected appreciation of the euro.” But over the course of this year, Morgan Stanley projects, expansion will gain momentum again, “especially once visibility on the European Central Bank’s comprehensive assessment of the banking system improves,” Bartsch adds. Indeed, progress toward a banking union is “reassuring,” she acknowledges, though discussions surrounding the Single Resolution Mechanism, which would allow the ECB to directly supervise banks in the euro area, have yet to conclude.