Bin Gao, Claudio Piron & team
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Slipping from second place to third in this sector, whose name is changed from Currency & Foreign Exchange, is the Bank of America Merrill Lynch quartet conducted by Claudio Piron, sharing leadership responsibilities this year with Hong Kong–based newcomer Bin Gao. “They have the strongest research on the Chinese fixed-income markets,” declares one advocate. With regard to the region’s largest economy, last year “was abnormal in that China’s corporates hoarded dollars in fear of a hard landing,” reports Piron, who is headquartered in Singapore. “This concern has evaporated, and their hedging behavior is returning to selling their dollar proceeds from exports” — a practice that is putting appreciation pressure on the Chinese currency. The strategists are urging clients to go long on the offshore renminbi against the dollar. The team also believes that if the pace of the Japanese yen’s weakening slows, Asian currencies will strengthen. Year-end targets against the dollar include 1,020 for South Korea’s won (1,106.19 in late April), 52 for the Indian rupee (54.04) and 6.05 (6.21) for the onshore renminbi. — Pam Baker