Maxim Oreshkin
VTB Capital
Newcomer Maxim Oreshkin of VTB Capital secures the No. 3 spot. More bearish than many of his peers, Oreshkin predicted in June 2012 that Russia’s real gross domestic product would increase only 2 percent this year; he revised his forecast in March, to 2.4 percent, “on higher oil price assumptions and expectations of additional investments into infrastructure projects.” A number of factors are constraining the country’s economy: a slowdown in government spending, a decrease in bank lending and an increase in household savings. “Together they have pushed the growth rate of internal demand lower,” the strategist explains. Moreover, with near record low unemployment, anemic workforce expansion and industrial-capacity utilization at a high level, “the only potential sources of growth are an increase in investment activity and an increase in productivity,” Oreshkin says. “To unlock this potential the government needs to undertake structural reforms, improve the investment climate, establish proper working financial intermediaries and financial markets, and raise the standards of living so as to attract a highly skilled labor force and prevent a brain drain.” Clients are impressed. Oreshkin “has a deep knowledge of Russian statistical data and is able to present his views in a structured way,” says one. “Last year he made a good out-of-consensus call on Russia’s economy — his forecast of 2 percent growth for 2013 was published in mid-2012, at a time when most analysts were still at around 4 percent.” — Thomas W. Johnson