Charles (Brad) Hintz
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.
First-place appearances: 3

Total appearances: 12

Analyst debut: 2002

Falling one position to No. 3 is Charles (Brad) Hintz of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. Despite regulatory changes, reduced risk appetites and lower leverage, few capital markets firms appear willing to cede market share to competitors, Hintz says. Consequently, “banks are cutting compensation, restructuring trading and constraining balance sheets to improve performance while they wait impatiently for normalization and for their weaker competitors to admit defeat,” he explains. One top pick is Chicago’s CME Group, whose Chicago Mercantile Exchange dominates the U.S. interest rates futures market. The operator is “well positioned” for a winding down of the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing scheme, Hintz says, because its revenue climbs with rising rates, volatility in foreign exchange and increasing capitalization of debt markets. He also favors Morgan Stanley as the New York–based brokerage revamps to focus on a “lower-risk, less-capital-intensive business mix.” By contrast, crosstown rival Goldman Sachs Group is maintaining its current model by emphasizing its successful investment banking, trading and private equity businesses — so “will be the last man standing when the attrition among capital markets firms ends,” Hintz contends. The veteran analyst maintains a “broad industry approach, which helps with relative comparisons,” one booster affirms. — Carolyn Koo