Tony Tsang & team
Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank repeats in second place. The 12-strong team, which added three members last year, is directed by Tony Tsang in Hong Kong and covers 90 companies, an increase of 30 since last spring. Municipal regulations unveiled in March to dampen speculative investment, at the behest of China’s State Council, were less onerous than many feared; thus “for the China property sector, we see a relatively stable policy environment for 2013 and good sales growth for the listed developers,” Tsang says. “The [restrictions] were mild compared with market expectations.” The story is different in Hong Kong, however. Owing to “government tightening measures, recent increases in mortgage rates and a slowing economy, we expect property price declines of 15 to 20 percent for the next 24 months,” he maintains. The analysts are bullish on China Overseas Land & Investment, a Hong Kong–based developer with properties in Macau and throughout the mainland. The stock “has continued to deliver strong growth in property sales, net profit and dividends, together with high gross margins, net margins, return on assets and return on equity,” he reports. “These all highlight the strong execution abilities of the management, which should continue to drive fast growth.” The shares were trading at HK$23.70 in late April; the researchers have a target price of HK$28. Tsang “has an in-depth understanding of the Chinese property market and gives accurate updates about market developments and valuation calls,” asserts one backer. — Leslie Kramer