Sonal Varma
Nomura
First-place appearances: 0

Total appearances: 2

Analyst debut: 2011

Unranked last year, Sonal Varma seizes the No. 2 position. The Nomura economist is “coherent, concise and timely,” says one portfolio manager. “The timeliness and coherence make it easy to know where she stands and how her views evolve.” India’s long-term prospects are evident, Varma insists. Despite recent moderation, India’s expansion is still substantially faster than many other emerging-markets economies’. In addition, “domestic consumption is a big opportunity,” she notes, “and India’s infrastructure requirement also presents a good opportunity for investors looking for growth.” But money managers should expect the short term to be a story of turbulence, thanks to “a combination of a weak growth outlook, supply-side inflationary pressures [and] asset-quality and fiscal concerns,” she adds. Varma is watching for signs of a turnaround in the growth cycle, led typically by exports or investments, and is tracking portfolio flows, any shift in which will have an impact on India’s large current-account deficit. By both these metrics, she counsels, “risks remain skewed to the downside” ahead of next year’s general elections, which are an additional source of uncertainty. At the same time, however, the next nine months “will also present an excellent opportunity for long-term investors [that] are keen to invest in India,” she believes. “For long-term investors the best time to invest is when there is fear, and currently the mood is very grim, which suggests that there is a lot of value available.” She is therefore not structurally bearish. “There are challenges which can be overcome if the right political leadership drives the nation,” contends Varma, who characterizes the upcoming elections as a potentially “important turning point.” — Carolyn Koo